With each passing day, the media narrative of a “Democrat comeback” ahead of the midterm elections drifts further and further away from reality.
This week has been no exception. As we previously reported, according to even recent Democrat-friendly polls, there has been a marked shift back in the GOP’s direction on generic Congressional balloting and polling on party control preference, with Republicans surging ahead.
In addition to that, on top of the woes Democrats have seen with Hispanic voters steadily abandoning the party over concerns about their obsession with wokeness comes news that Democrats are increasingly falling out of favor with black voters as well, and by just enough margins to give them nightmares on election night.
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From the transcript:
And as you can see here in the race for Congress, look, they’re still getting 74 percent support in the pre-election polling right now. But compare that to the final polling for 2020 president and 2018 Congress. Back in 2020 it was 84 percent, 85 percent in 2018. So, you’re clearly seeing right here that there is less support for Democratic candidates for Congress among African Americans.
And you can look at the Republican column as well and you can see that 12 percent, not exactly high, but that’s actually the high water mark. It was 9 percent in 2020, 9 percent in 2018. So, basically, what was about a 75, 76 point margin is now down in the low 60s.
So, look, Democrats still well ahead with African Americans. But, in a game in which you’re trying to drive up margins, the margin among African Americans for Democrats is clearly down.
Later on in the segment, Enten noted that the drop in support could have devastatingly negative impacts for Democrats in key races in states with large populations of black and Hispanic voters, like Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, all of which have Senate races on the ballot in November and gubernatorial races (in Florida and Georgia). It’s especially significant in the case of Stacey Abrams, Enten observed:
If you’re looking at Georgia here, what should see, as you can see, if you compare the 2022 polling to 2018, Brian Kemp is clearly picking up ground overall, six points – his lead is six points larger. But among African American voters, look at that, Stacey Abrams’ lead is actually down from 79 points in the final 2018 polling to 67 points now. So, in Georgia, this key state where black voters make up such a large portion of the electorate, you’re seeing, again, more movement among black voters away from the Democratic Party than you’re seeing among voters overall.
Every time someone points out to Democrats that they are losing black support, the standard, canned response is “but they still overwhelmingly vote for Democrats.” While that’s true, it’s also not the point. In close races where one or two percentage points can be the difference between winning and losing, Democrats shedding even half a percentage point with black voters can spell doom at the ballot box for them.
That’s the point.
The problem here for Democrats is that it’s not just a small percentage anymore. The numbers of disaffected black Democrats are growing, and it’s only going to get worse in future election cycles the further to the left Democrats go on issues like abortion, religion, gender identity politics, and wokeness.
Democrats have taken advantage of minority voters and their support for decades. That they’re now actually having to compete with Republicans for voters who were once considered reliable Democratic voting blocs infuriates them, but they only have two options here going forward.
They can pull back from the woke abyss and rabid left-wing fever swamps or risk losing a significant chunk of support for the foreseeable future by allowing their party to continue being held hostage by radicals like AOC’s Squad.
Which will they choose? My money’s on the latter, but only time will tell.